joshuaandClaude Opus 5.5
54ae9c49a1
Built from the kit specs (CLAUDE.md, docs/01-05): question index import, status seals, connections graph, Pagefind search, Scripture margin, and 157 evidence articles (drafts unless published) with sources and verified "Learn more" links. Includes link, owner-notes, a11y and publish scripts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
87 lines
4.3 KiB
Plaintext
87 lines
4.3 KiB
Plaintext
---
|
||
question: "12.6"
|
||
translation: "ESV"
|
||
sources:
|
||
- title: "Science Speaks"
|
||
author: "Peter Stoner"
|
||
date: "1952; rev. 1958 and later"
|
||
- title: "Evidence That Demands a Verdict"
|
||
author: "Josh McDowell"
|
||
date: "1972"
|
||
note: "Popularized Stoner’s figures."
|
||
- title: "The Improbability Principle"
|
||
author: "David Hand"
|
||
date: "2014"
|
||
note: "A statistician on why seemingly impossible coincidences happen."
|
||
learnMore:
|
||
- title: "Science Speaks, Chapter 3: The Christ of Prophecy"
|
||
url: "https://sciencespeaks.dstoner.net/Christ_of_Prophecy.html"
|
||
type: "source"
|
||
site: "Science Speaks (online edition)"
|
||
note: "Read Stoner’s calculations for yourself."
|
||
- title: "Peter Stoner"
|
||
url: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Stoner"
|
||
site: "Wikipedia"
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## What Scripture says
|
||
|
||
Scripture presents fulfilled prophecy as evidence of God’s knowledge and power: “I am God, and there is none like me, declaring the end from the beginning and from ancient times things not yet done” (Isaiah 46:9–10, ESV). The test of a true prophet was that his words came true (Deuteronomy 18:21–22).
|
||
|
||
## What the evidence says
|
||
|
||
### Science
|
||
|
||
#### Stoner’s calculation
|
||
|
||
Peter Stoner, a mathematics and astronomy teacher at Pasadena City College, wrote *Science Speaks* (first edition 1952). In chapter 3, he selected eight prophecies about the Messiah:
|
||
|
||
1. Born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2).
|
||
2. Preceded by a messenger (Malachi 3:1).
|
||
3. Entering Jerusalem on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9).
|
||
4. Betrayed by a friend (Psalm 41:9).
|
||
5. Sold for thirty pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12).
|
||
6. The money thrown into the temple and used for a potter’s field (Zechariah 11:13).
|
||
7. Silent before his accusers (Isaiah 53:7).
|
||
8. Pierced in hands and feet (Psalm 22:16).
|
||
|
||
For each, he estimated the fraction of people who might fulfil it by chance. For example, he estimated that about one person in 280,000 is born in Bethlehem, based on its population compared with the world’s. Multiplying the estimates, he concluded the chance of one person fulfilling all eight by chance is 1 in 10¹⁷ (100,000,000,000,000,000).
|
||
|
||
He illustrated this with silver dollars: cover the state of Texas two feet deep in silver dollars, mark one, stir them, and send a blindfolded person to pick one. The chance of picking the marked coin is about the same.
|
||
|
||
### Philosophy
|
||
|
||
#### Strengths
|
||
|
||
- The calculation makes a real point vividly: specific prophecies, especially those outside a person’s control, are very unlikely to come together by chance in one person.
|
||
- Stoner’s estimates are, in some cases, conservative.
|
||
- Adding more prophecies would make the odds smaller still.
|
||
|
||
#### Weaknesses
|
||
|
||
| Issue | Problem |
|
||
| --- | --- |
|
||
| The numbers are estimates | Figures like “1 in 1,000 enter Jerusalem on a donkey” are educated guesses, not measured data |
|
||
| Independence | Multiplying probabilities assumes the events are unrelated; some aren’t (being betrayed and sold for silver are linked) |
|
||
| Control | Some prophecies could be fulfilled deliberately, such as riding a donkey (see 12.5) |
|
||
| Interpretation | The calculation assumes the Gospel accounts are accurate and the texts are predictive (see 5.10, 12.5) |
|
||
| Selection | With many possible texts to choose from, some matches would be expected by chance |
|
||
|
||
So the numbers can’t be taken as a precise scientific result. The odds are clearly tiny, but the exact figure isn’t meaningful.
|
||
|
||
### Context
|
||
|
||
Stoner’s book carried a foreword stating that the American Scientific Affiliation, a group of Christian scientists, had reviewed the manuscript and found it, “in general, to be dependable and accurate”. This meant his arithmetic was sound given his assumptions, not that the assumptions themselves were proven.
|
||
|
||
## Where they meet
|
||
|
||
Peter Stoner’s *Science Speaks* (1950s) estimated 1 in 10¹⁷ for just eight prophecies. The odds are clearly tiny, but his numbers are estimates, not measured data. Use it as an illustration, not proof.
|
||
|
||
## What’s still open
|
||
|
||
How to fairly estimate the probabilities, and how much they depend on the accuracy of the Gospel accounts.
|
||
|
||
## Bottom line
|
||
|
||
Peter Stoner’s *Science Speaks* (1950s) estimated 1 in 10¹⁷ for just eight prophecies. The odds are clearly tiny, but his numbers are estimates, not measured data. Use it as an illustration, not proof. This is rated **Debated**.
|